Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a ability provided through current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
