Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
